Why the Hyperliquid-Kraken Deal Could Be Bigger Than It Looks

Introduction

It seems two of the biggest exchanges in crypto's centralized and decentralized worlds are moving toward a connection that could reshape the US derivatives market.

The reported talks between Kraken and Hyperliquid are being framed as Hyperliquid's potential entry into the US. But that undersells what is actually happening.

Kraken could give Hyperliquid a regulated route into the US, while Hyperliquid could give Kraken access to one of crypto's hottest perpetual futures markets.

That is a pretty powerful trade.

Hyperliquid's biggest problem isn't demand

Hyperliquid has already built the product traders want. It processed more than $5.4 trillion in cumulative perpetual futures volume, and recently accounted for roughly 40% of global onchain perp volume, according to filings from Hyperliquid Strategies.

The problem is that US users are officially restricted from using its perp markets. That does not mean Americans aren't trading there. Hyperliquid's own filings acknowledge that some restricted users can attempt to get around its geographic controls using VPNs and other methods.

It has built one of the biggest perp markets in crypto, but one of the world's biggest pools of crypto traders sits behind a regulatory wall. A partnership with Kraken parent Payward could provide a way around that.

Bloomberg reported that Payward is exploring offering Hyperliquid-linked perpetual futures to US traders through Bitnomial, its CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange.

Hyperliquid's Growing Perps Volume, Source: DefiLlama

And Kraken needs the volume

The incentive is just as strong on Kraken's side. Payward generated $508 million in adjusted revenue in Q2, but transaction volume fell 18% to $310 billion, while adjusted EBITDA was only $23 million.

That makes trading growth particularly important. And Kraken has been preparing for a much bigger US derivatives push. It acquired Bitnomial, launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures and has continued expanding its derivatives business.

Now imagine plugging one of the largest existing perp markets into that infrastructure. Kraken wouldn't need to spend years convincing traders to use another new perp venue. The liquidity and demand are already sitting on Hyperliquid.

For Kraken, that could mean more trading activity, more fees and another major product line at a time when Payward is still trying to build the business ahead of an eventual IPO. Payward confidentially filed to go public in late 2025, but later paused the process amid market conditions. 

A bigger, higher-volume derivatives business would obviously make for a better IPO story than simply hoping crypto trading activity comes back.

Final Thoughts

The bull case is actually pretty simple. If a big chunk of Hyperliquid's traffic is coming from a country where it cannot officially operate, that is a serious risk. A Kraken deal could give it a legitimate way to serve those traders instead of constantly trying to block or ignore that demand. 

For Payward, it gets access to one of the biggest perp markets in crypto at a time when it is trying to grow trading revenue and strengthen its business ahead of an eventual IPO.

The detail to watch is whether the contracts end up deployed on HyperCore under HIP-3 or listed on Bitnomial with Hyperliquid supplying only an index, because that single design decision determines whether HYPE holders own a piece of American perp volume or just a headline about it.

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