Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $150K If Trump Wins Election

Introduction

Standard Chartered has just stirred the crypto market with a jaw-dropping prediction: Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 by the end of 2024. This revised forecast, up from their earlier $100,000 estimate, is attributed to several key factors, including growing institutional interest, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a fascinating political twist—Donald Trump's possible return to the White House in 2024.

What’s the Connection?

The London-based bank believes that a Trump victory could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the United States. Previously, Standard Chartered had forecasted a $100,000 price mark for the world’s first cryptocurrency.

The bank suggests that Trump's potential presidency could result in changes to U.S. fiscal policies that might enhance the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as alternative assets. During Trump's previous term, there was a notable reduction in stringent regulations, which could repeat and bolster Bitcoin's position in the market.

Trump's crypto-friendly stance is evident from his own holdings and those of his election campaign team. In August 2023, it was reported that Donald Trump held $2.8 million in a cryptocurrency wallet, as disclosed in official documents received by the governmental ethics watchdog group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics. He also earned $4.87 million from NFT licensing fees, as per the filing.

Moreover, at a recent fundraiser in San Francisco, Donald Trump positioned himself as a "crypto president" and criticized the Democrats' attempts to regulate the cryptocurrency sector. So, if Trump secures the hot seat once again, there's a potential scenario where cryptocurrency sees a significant surge, resulting in a rise in Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin’s Growth Trajectory

Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, is the one responsible for the bank's bold prediction regarding Bitcoin's future price. Kendrick anticipates that Bitcoin may first reach $80,000 to $100,000 as the election approaches, followed by a further surge to $150,000 by the end of the year if Trump is re-elected.

He also projects a possible rise in Bitcoin's price to $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by continued institutional investment and favorable market conditions. This bullish outlook is underpinned by comparisons to the historical performance of gold after the approval of gold ETFs, suggesting that Bitcoin could follow a similar trajectory as a "digital gold".

Potential Risks Ahead

While the $150,000 target for Bitcoin by the end of 2024 is ambitious, it’s not a risk-free trade. We all know how volatile Bitcoin’s price has lately been, with Standard Chartered warning that it could fall further to $50,000 if the current roller-coaster ride continues. The bank cites crypto-specific concerns, such as five consecutive days of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a poor response to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong, as contributing factors to the price decline.

Additionally, broader macroeconomic trends, such as deteriorating liquidity measures in the U.S. since mid-April and the likelihood of fewer Fed rate cuts, are also weighing on Bitcoin's price dynamics. Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin could re-enter the $50-52,000 range if the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on June 15th is favorable.

Despite the ongoing market situation, Standard Chartered sticks to its optimistic long-term predictions for Bitcoin, regardless of whether Trump wins or not. The bank suggests that as we approach a possible Trump victory in the election, Bitcoin might see a significant surge from September through the year's end.

Conclusion

With a year-end target of $150,000 and potential for further gains, Bitcoin's future appears promising, particularly if political developments in the United States favor a more crypto-friendly environment. Republican candidate Donald Trump has been pretty vocal about his support for the cryptocurrency space during his ongoing campaigns. But we'll have to wait and see what goes down on November 5th—the big voting day—and who eventually ends up taking charge at the Oval Office.